Bihar Polls - Who will be the winner?

Would BJP-JD(U) combo do the magic or would it be Lalu's time again?


Will Lalu hit a six or be bowled?


As the counting takes place for all 243 constituencies, everyone is eagerly waiting to see the result. The majority believes that Nitish's development approach has been widely appreciated and he would see a comeback government, while supporters of Lalu Yadav believe that it would be opposite of sorts.

Federal Reserve has downgraded US Economic Outlook

The Fed's quarterly, three-year forecast prepared at the Nov. 2-3 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, projects unemployment at 8.9 to 9.1% next year, much higher than previously forecasted. Inflation is expected to rise a bit but stay well below 2%.

'Tentative' Unity - Now "Third Front" parties find a reason to unite

With Congress already in the back-foot (2G scam) and BJP not able to decide on the trade-off between controlling corruption in Karnataka Govt or holding on to power, the smaller parties are 'tentatively' uniting and raising their voice against corruption.

This 'front' mainly consists of Left parties (ex UPA 1 partner), JD(S) (trying best to take advantage of any political platform for political gains in Karnataka), TDP (another round of TDP Vs Congress), AIADMK (will do everything to ensure DMK is at the back-foot), BJD and RLD (both of these have their own 'strategic' reasons).

But before we expect too much from them, how long can they stay united is the challenge. Even earlier they have come together, only to leave apart with bitter differences.

The silver-lining is - because of this, the Congress and even the BJP would need to do further introspection. Unless Congress and BJP make tangible changes, they would continue to loss ground and respect from common man.

Political transformation always happens from within. May be, it's time for these parties to deeply introspect on their party structure, elevate younger leaders (with clean records) and come out with revitalized party policies. 

CWG dirt - A case to revamp the way we look at Sports Administration

Former Commonwealth Games (CWG) Organizing Committee (OC) officials T S Darbari and Sanjay Mahendroo who are close aides of Suresh Kalmadi, were arrested last Monday in a case pertaining to payments made to AM films and AM car hire, both owned by Ashish Patel, a UK based businessman. They were sent to CBI’s custody till November 22, 2010.  Another top Commonwealth Games official, M Jeychandren, who was Joint Director-General of finance and accounts (and was part of the empowered committee that finalized the controversial deal with London-based AM Films), was also later arrested for his alleged role in the Queen's Baton Relay scam.  Another official - Sudhir Verma, Deputy Director General (communication) of the Games Organizing Committee (also part of the empowered panel that picked AM Films to install video screens at the venue at exorbitant rates) is also being questioned by CBI.

But the most “important” person missing in action is – our dear Mr. Kalmadi. While there have been news that he is abroad, the way this ‘mess’ has been spilled wide open, it only provides a case to re-look at our entire mechanism of sports administration.

Commonwealth Games mess has provided an opportunity of sorts. It brings reason that these administrative boards/ associations need to be regulated and revamped. This should go across the games like Cricket etc. It is so unfortunate that these associations are usually run by either politicians or “administrators” who have never represented India in any match of international repute.

This brings down to – what is the role of Sports Ministry? Also, do we want to take sports like just any another thing in this country; or do we truly believe that if countries like US, China, Australia and the likes can do so well, why can’t we?

I haven’t come across a standard, publicized, yearly program on Athletics, Shooting, Swimming etc. Yes, there are once in a while events (like CWG), when we all sit-up and take notice, but other than that, there is total lack of co-ordinated approach to sports.

With close to 1.2 billion people, we can certainly don’t better!

Indeed, firstly, all Boards should be run only and only by ex-sportsmen of that sport. It should be transparent and all financial records should be published Quarterly. It cannot be something like BCCI, where a Board member even owns an IPL team and we don’t dare to call it conflict of interest?

These Boards should be given autonomy, however, under total supervision of Sports Ministry. Every state should have a world class stadium and every district (or a group of few) should have a “national” level stadium. All sports-persons should be graded in their respective games and there should be a clear compensation policy. Any sports-person who can go to district level and above, should be given the best-in-class food, equipment and all medical assistance. Later, if he cannot continue sports due to health issues, don’t dump him mid-way. There should be clear retirement plans and pension scheme.





Respect and support is all that is required by all upcoming talent. It would be a tragedy if the Government cannot retrospect and make rampant changes, after thoughtful deliberations.

Also, it is very important to see who is appointed as the Sports Minister. I hate it when I see a Minister mis-behaving with a coach and going for a photo opportunity (anyone who would have seen games in the last 3 months would know what I am talking about….hint - Wresting). Such Ministers are shameless. One who cannot respect the coach of a sports-person can never understand the meaning of sport and what it stands for.

The Sports Minister, first should have and must have played sports at the International level. He should present a clear vision on how the entire sports development would happen in the country. He should elaborate clearly, the clear road map of all sports, starting from infrastructure and facility at the village level to national level. How would he go about ensuring that the talent gets the essential support, right from the begining. Eg. if the girls in a village have immense potential in say wresting, what can he do to ensure that within a week all necessary equipment and food is available to them. Few weeks back, I saw a news report showing how our talented youth is suffering from the basic needs.

Sports needs geniune encouragement and real/actual support (monetary support - also very important). If without much support (for most sports), our sports-men/women are getting medals, imaging what they can do if given a proper planned road map and continous support.

For a nation wining medals at a global stage is as key as getting a UNSC seat!

The Currency War

The economic circles have a new buzz word to debate on - "currency war". However, careful analysis may reveal quite a significant implications as well as reasons.

So much can be the impact that Pascal Lamy, WTO director general, said (on Friday/ 19th Nov 2010) the fight over currency values (in a reference to the United States and China) could upset global financial stability. He goes on to add that competitive devaluations, which have raised fears of a global currency war, could trigger "tit-for-tat protectionism".

For the benefit of our readers, let me give some background. Months back, a section of experts highlighted that China is keeping its currency artificially low. This would help Chinese economy, at the cost of other countries, as an artificially devalued Chinese currency would make its exports more competitive than others.

Since then, China is under great pressure from its main trading partners, and from the US in particular, to allow the renminbi to appreciate more rapidly. In late 2010 legislators in the House of Representatives (the lower house in the US) passed a bill that would allow the US government to punish currency manipulators  by imposing tariffs (although it remains unlikely that this bill will become law). This move essentially targets China. Critics of China's policies point that due to persistent and large current and capital account surpluses, China has managed to witness rapid accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves which rose by a record US$194bn in the third quarter of 2010.

In June 2010, China announced it was resuming a “flexible” currency policy, letting the yuan float on world markets, as the dollar does; but the yuan has barely risen since then. Meanwhile, a potentially weaker dollar affects the United States’ interactions with many other countries. As expected, this move was criticized by China.

In September 2010, in testimony before a Senate Banking panel, U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner criticized Chinese exchange rate policy, saying that the administration is looking at using "all tools available" to improve trade imbalances between the two countries.

China, after partly freeing its currency to rise gradually from mid-2005 to mid-2008, re-pegged the yuan to the dollar at a rate that US lawmakers and some economists say is as much as 40 per cent below the appropriate value.

5 Year US-China currency movement
(Source:Yahoo Finance)

 
Recent economic history shows that US would do all that is possible to safeguard its economic interests. Like, in 1971 precedent in which the U.S. applied a 10 per cent surcharge on goods from Germany, Japan and other nations with undervalued currencies. Those surcharges were removed just a few months later after those nations with artificially low currencies allowed them to float upward.

But with not much co-operation happening on currency revaluation pressure on China, US has instead gone on try out something even bolder - Quantitative Easing.

The Fed announced that this policy (QE2) is the second phase of injecting liquidity into the US economy in the last two years. The Fed will buy treasury bonds and securities from the market to the tune of US$600 billion at the rate of US$100 billion a month for the next few months. This will be funded by printing more dollars.

This has been criticized by certain countries like China, European Union, Korea, Japan and Brazil that this would artificially strengthen their currencies and make them less competitive in international trade.

The Fed has already created liquidity since August 2010 and the size of the Fed budget has expanded by over US$200 billion since then. Coupled with low interest rates in the US, continuing unemployment and lack of capital formation, there is apprehension that excess liquidity will wash over the shores of many emerging market economies, several of which are struggling to come out of the financial crisis.

Some of the implications would be on commodity prices, stock prices of emerging markets, debt, capital inflows and international trade. At the same time, a strong US economic growth is also necessary for sustained world economic growth. The key challenge is to structure a more co-ordinated approach to international capital flows, currency markets and trade.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke recently acknowledged, a week after the G-20 nations meeting in South Korea failed to agree on a common approach, - "Tensions among nations over economic policies have emerged and intensified, potentially threatening our ability to find global solutions to global problems."

While there may be proponents of international trade and regimes like WTO, competitive devaluations, artificial manging currency markets and protectionist approach/ actions like these only expose the reality of how vulnerable international trade has made nations; and frankly speaking, any distorted approach or move towards either protectionism or irrational methods of artificially managing currency valuations would only lead to greater short and medium term risks.

Practice what you preach!

Karnataka has always been known as the IT hub of India. However, the state has recently been in news, thanks to serious corruption issues in BJP led/ Yeddyurappa Govt.

It is not that his opposition is known to be the best example of being clean, instead, they (the opposition) have had a habit of trying the best to disrupt the political stability. However, in this issue, they all have a point as there are grave mistakes committed by the government.



Current Karnataka Chief Minister - Mr. Yeddyurappa

The main issue is that Yeddyurappa's family (mainly his two sons) were given plots of land in and around Bangalore that were acquired by the government for public projects. The Opposition (mainly Kumaraswamy) alleges that Yeddyurappa misused his office to benefit his sons who were the beneficiaries of a massive land scam.

Kumaraswamy, in the last few days, has been able to produce several documents to show how government land was de-notified in a matter of days and sold to Yeddyurappa's family. This has raised huge public ire and increases the trust deficit that people would now have on the government.



If BJP wants to present its picture as a clean party, it is actually missing the bus. Delaying a decision to clean up the state party would only go against BJP in the long run. However, the larger question would then be - who would replace Yeddyurappa. If Reddy brothers gain control, things would only accentuate for the worse.

There can be no short-cuts and quick fixes. BJP needs to get its act together to earn the lost trust. It needs serious re-structuring and bringing up "non-lobby" based MLAs forward; something that won't be easy.



But then, if a party dares to teach another one on morality and best practices, it should first get its own act together. Practice what you preach!

Audio Tapes scandal

Heard this news on the internet about the Nira Radia audio tape case. Even managed to hear few clips on youtube and read few transcripts on various websites.

The most shocking part is that these convesations that Nira is supposedly having is with no ordinary journalists, rather some of the most respected names who are guiding the content of some top channels/ newspapers.

If this (and the context) turns out to be true, I'll be shocked. It only unearths the biggest scam in making.

What do we do as Indians? Corrupt politicians and even more corrupt journalists?

All I can say that as any responsible reader, we should observe this much closely without prejudice and favoritism. People may be drawn to early conclusions and become judgemental. Let this be debated and the guilty be punished.

The journalists in question should take the initiative and call for a debate. If journalists have the right to question all, they deserve to be questioned too, if such serious allegations are directed on them. If they have right to go after everyone even in the faintest of suspicion, there should be prime time shows and front page headlines which should "report" these allegations. Using media clout and not letting this topic be debated in electronic media is bringing doubts on the names of the journalists (in the audio tape).

One who is true, need not fear, hence it is best to come out open and debate; and one who isn't clean, truth will anyway catch them!